Carl's Finance & Investing Blog

Due to legal reasons, I cannot post updates to my portfolio for MarketCycle360.

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As I’ve said before, this market with all the liquidity of dollars coming into the economy (being printed); the cash has to go somewhere.  Gold and oil is performing well, and the overall market is performing well.  It will end.  And it will be violent… again.

(Delayed screen capture-look at signal for 6 Dec)
A couple of signals this week.  DUK is a buy again.  2x S&P is a buy, and my double benchmark 401K for real estate is a buy.  Overall, the portfolio is performing nicely.

Marketcycle 360 Portfolio update for Dec 4, 2010

Pretty quiet.  Markets were under some pressure by the European handling of the Ireland bailout.  The Eurodollar and British Sterling have seen huge losses this week. As for signals, nothing real significant, other than a signal to re-enter the real-estate fund.  Existing sales data for homes was at -8.6%.  These low sales numbers with the interest rates this low, does not make a good case for a recovery any time soon.  Minor signal to buy AMD.  Chip and semiconductor stocks have been on the rise since September, but I don’t see it as much more than a correction of thier respective bear markets.

Marketcycle 360 Portfolio update for Nov 27, 2010

We have a signal to get out of the real estate fund and the Duke Energy stock.  Also, buy Gold.  Add to core position.  It looks as though oil position, gold position and 3X Inverse Treasury position are pointing toward continued inflation worries.  When the equities markets along with the commodity markets are rising, there is a lot of money (FED) pouring into them due to inflation (printing of money – nowhere else to go).

Marketcycle 360 Portfolio update for Nov 20, 2010

This week saw weakness in techs.  Cisco growth numbers were alarming for the market.  Cisco is a Dow stock, so the signal I got to buy the Dow ETF is a little mystifying.  I always hate to disregard a signal, because they usually turn out right.  I am wary of this market, even though the Treasury is pumping billions of dollars into it.  Inflation driven markets tend to crash pretty hard… eventually.  Meanwhile, being wary, means missing the inflationary bull market.  We’ve seen this movie before, and there is never a happy ending… for the buy and hold.

I’ve got a buy signal for the DOW ETF and a SELL for GE which is contradictory, but lends to my view that this is a weak DOW buy signal.  I have a buy for PVX, my high dividend Canadian Oil play.  Its current yield is 8.8%.  An inflationary period is good for commodities, as they all should go up in price.  I have a core holding of PVX that I will add to.

MarketCycle360 - Porfolio Results for November 13, 2010